Maria Orlova – Unsplash -

Sažetak na srpskom jeziku

Zašto baš Srbija? Zato što se upravo ovde, u realnom vremenu, odlučuje budućnost evropske pekarske industrije.

U ovom članku nezavisni inženjeri prehrambene industrije analiziraju:

zašto je Srbija postala živi laboratorij za pekarstvo,

kako se mađarsko i srpsko tržište sve više približavaju,

šta znači kada 6 od 9 proizvoda u pekari premaši 60% troškova samo na sirovine i radnu snagu,

i kako praćenje troškova u realnom vremenu (sa tačnošću od 6 decimala) može spasiti posao.

Posebno analiziramo srpski model sa regulisanom cenom hleba (65 RSD, 500g), gde pekare moraju 30% proizvodnje da posvete ovom proizvodu – a preostalih 70% može biti sve ostalo.

Poruka je jasna:
Ono što se danas dešava u Srbiji – sutra će se desiti i u Mađarskoj.
Pitanje nije da li ćete pratiti troškove u realnom vremenu, već šta će se desiti ako to ne učinite.

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Ako vašoj organizaciji treba ovo detaljno stručno znanje o cenama, kontaktirajte nas sa poverenjem!

Možete nam poveriti ovaj zadatak, a mi smo spremni da doprinesemo svojim znanjem uspehu vaše kompanije! --- > Pišite nam!

lecsomernok@gmail.com 

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Let's dive into the lecsó, let's see why the fate of the European bakery industry for the next 10 years will be decided in Serbia. The changes are happening now, and the next two years will be very critical, as we independent food engineers see the current reality.

Speaking of Serbia, let's see what life is like there. Let's see what nubeo shows.

Let's compare Sabac - Veszprém. As you can see, the two countries are moving more or less together.

This means nothing more than that Hungary has separated from the Estonia-Latvia-Lithuania-Poland-Slovakia development line and is moving together with Serbia. Why this happened and how this affects the food economy would deserve another post here on Lecsó - the Economic Blog of Food Engineers - https://lecsos.blog.hu -

I. Who are we and why do we analyze the Serbian bakery industry in this article?

The Food Engineers Economic Blog – https://lecsos.blog.hu – is published by independent food engineers and professionals close to the food industry.

They do this to provide the general public with an independent voice about the world of the food industry.

The blog is read by a lot of people, the content is interesting not only for the narrow professional public, but also for those who are curious about what kind of world lies behind a good Sunday lunch.

So we are independent professionals who have the future of the food industry at their heart.

II. How will the content published on the blog actually benefit companies?

Each of our posts contains a call, for example with the following text:

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If your organization needs this in-depth pricing expertise, feel free to contact us!

You can entrust us with this task, and we are ready to contribute our knowledge to the success of your company! --- > Write to us!

lecsomernok@gmail.com

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If the article has piqued the interest of a company or organization, the owners, managers, or those involved in the given field at the company - write us a short letter to the above e-mail address. After the short letter, I will contact the company or organization, and we will start talking. The goal is to be able to recommend a colleague with the most relevant experience to the company with the company's consent.

After all this digression, let's really get down to business, why do independent food engineers say that the future of the European bakery industry is now being decided in Serbia? - With this, we also say that what is happening in Serbia today in the bakery industry will also happen in Hungary, e.g. in the near future.

III. Let's get started, why Serbia, why bakery industry? And how does cost science come into play here?

What you see in the figure above is a snapshot of a real-time production cost simulation of a 5-person bakery at a given moment.

We need to "pause for a moment of civil defense" here, as we need to understand what we are seeing:

1. What we see in the figure above is not an opinion, but a fact given by data from production with 6 decimal places.
2. Right now, it is the bakery industry, but we can calculate the operating costs of any organization, company, etc. in real time, there is no limit.
3. Real-time cost calculation is at the operating level!
4. The figure contains exactly 9 products – since in the simulation, the bakery produces these 9 products in the given shift – this could be any number, there is no limit.
5. The production cost means: - the numbers in the above figure mean the following final product position: Delivered to the store or to the customer – “ready to sell pos 9:00 AM” – ready to sell position 9:00 AM” - position.

That is:

The product is there on the shelf, which the seller can take off, hand over to the customer, and issue the block or invoice at the moment of sale. The cash register can ring, - because what we call a product has been sold, and everyone is happy -

1. The fact that this figure exists, and that we share it with you, means that the operation of a company – bakery, mill, any organization – can be fully, naturally simulated here at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century in real time, without restrictions.
2. That is: if we can do it, then anyone can do it, even you. So the question is not what happens if you do it, the question is what happens if you don’t do it
3. If you need our help with production costing, we don't introduce a corporate management system or try to sell you a "cheesy costing module", we don't "do magic in SAP" - although we could J - but you get a solution with which you will always see how much what you are doing costs in real time.
4. If you need our help with production costing, we don't introduce a "quality assurance system" for you or a "new HACCP" but you get a solution with which you will always see how much what you are doing costs in real time.

IV. So, you see the figure and you get a shock

Simply because you see in the figure that in real time – now, down in production – the raw material + labor cost of 6 products out of the 9 manufactured products reaches or exceeds 60% of the total cost of the product in real time. The remaining 40% goes to the rest.

Now I know what you want to do. But it’s not a good idea. The “raw material” label in the figure does not mean T-500 flour. So you can’t do it by taking the price per kg of T-500 flour that you prefer and calculating how much it cost, for example, product “B”.

Because the label – raw material – does not mean T-500 flour or any other flour.

This raw material includes everything that was produced during the shift, for example – without claiming to be complete –:

• Various flours
• Yeasts
• Sourdoughs, sourdough preparations
• Sugar, salt, etc.
• Ready-made flour mixtures
• Toppings, etc.
• Auxiliary materials

and I could list them all day long.

So the “raw material” label in the diagram is not the “raw milk” label as in this article. We did not refine the diagram further, that is, we did not include the entire raw material system, because the diagram would not be interpretable, too much information would have been included in it.

But believe me, we know with 6 decimal places what raw materials, how, and for how much we used to produce the given product, and why.

You could do the percentage calculation there, you can’t here.

Here is the article about raw milk, just see the difference:

Small raw milk and its price analysis - July 21, 2025.-

So, I can tell you your production costs in real time from here in Veszprém. There is no secret about this in 2026.

You can see in the figure that raw materials + wages for 6 out of 9 manufactured products: 60%, the rest of the costs are: 40%.

This is terrible - you say, you - you have to take this into account, and you may decide based on emotion - because you hear everywhere that labor is expensive, and raw materials are expensive. And you start thinking about how to save on raw materials or labor. Because it is right in front of your eyes, "since everyone says so, this is the common knowledge."

V. "Cost Pie" at Company Level

Well, if you see the total production cost per product at a given moment in real time, then you will see the current production cost at the company level in real time:

This figure is often shown in many places, but it matters what you see. The figure above is a snapshot of our simulation. It's not an opinion, it's a fact with 6 decimal places.

VI. We keep coming up with 6 decimal places, why is that? It's a bakery.

Simply because your company has a 6 decimal place "real-time cost accounting software" running behind it, you start to get frustrated by things that you simply hadn't noticed before, or you simply didn't see that money was going out of your pocket.

VII. The concept of efficiency makes sense

The little things make sense. You'll be interested in things like how efficiency can be quantified.

The above diagram was developed quite a long time ago by cost scientists, the first version of which was presented in food quality management some 40 years ago. If you see the entire operation in real time, the diagram becomes very easy to interpret.

But if you don't know where you are facing, then the existence of the red curve can be a disaster.

There was a time when a client said:

- Hey, is there such a thing as "total production costs"?

- I didn't know that this existed until now...

This sentence saved his company and the jobs of many people, because we got involved, and together the owner and the food engineers put the story back together. It wasn't an easy journey, but it was worth doing what had to be done. - Of course, he didn't solve the problem by laying off workers.. -

The diagram above looks different in services and looks different in trade. The fatal problem usually occurs when someone doesn't know whether their company is currently a manufacturer or a service company...

VII. So we are now efficient, the money comes from sales, then we will have a break-even point...

This is what the 20th century taught us. This was enough 40 years ago, now it will not be enough. In our simulation, we see our production costs in real time, so we can price the product super well in the given sales channel.

That is why you don't see in the first figure - which is a snapshot of the real-time production cost simulation of a 5-person bakery at a given moment - that, for example, "profit" Simply because the production cost is the production cost, and the profit depends on the selling price, and not on "production cost".

One is cost science, the other is shelf price training science, they are completely different disciplines, for different purposes. Each science is needed in order to be able to generate profit. Your company should be an asset - that puts money in your pocket - and not a resource - that takes money out of your pocket -

VIII. So why Serbia? And now the future of the European bakery industry is decided here? How is this?

After all this “introduction”, let’s really get into it.

In the recent period, Serbia has turned into a perfect living, “real-time food economy laboratory”. Economic actors will analyze solutions that can be derived from the market conditions of the Serbian location, and in the near future they will decide and act based on these experiences in other similar markets, such as Hungary. In other words, we have a watchful eye on Serbia.

IX. Let's see why Serbia is the perfect "real-time food economics lab" for the bakery industry?

Serbia in general:

1. Serbia has a traditionally developed bakery structure, all elements of the value chain are present in the country, deeply integrated. There are mills, bakeries, additive distributors, etc. with very deep market integration.
2. It is close to the EU, Serbia is tied to the 500 million EU market by a thousand threads.
3. Average net wages are relatively low compared to the EU - even Hungary. See nubeo - Sabac vs. Veszprém -
4. Serbia imports diesel fuel from Hungary -- This predicts an increase in the price of diesel fuel in Serbia as well. Since Hungary has currently reached into its oil reserves, which are treated as strategic reserves, in order to ensure the country's fuel supply. Fuel prices have also risen at the wells in Hungary.
5. The workforce is educated and wants to work.
6. Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil production passes. This predicts an increase in oil prices.
7. Russian oil is currently not arriving in Hungary via the Barátság oil pipeline.

Bakery industry in general – but not only the bakery industry… -:

1. During Covid, but also after, raw material and energy costs have increrased, these are weighing on companies' balance sheets, they need to be financed, for which they have taken out loans, the refinancing of which can be quite expensive. This cost increase should be reflected in sales prices, the question is whether it is possible, and if so, to what extent? This can be true for bakers, machine manufacturers, and any actor and function in the value chain.
2. The market is becoming concentrated, small and medium-sized bakeries are closing, they cannot withstand price competition.
3. In Serbia, there is a 500 g loaf of bread made from T-500 flour, with an official price, the selling price of which is currently 65 RSD (0.55 EUR), and the production cost is 55.74 RSD (0.47 EUR) This is accompanied by an executive regulation that requires bakers that 30% of their daily production must consist of this product, the remaining 70% of daily production can be other.

The problems could be listed further, but this is more than enough to illustrate the basic problem.

In summary:

There is a market where purchasing power is limited, the market is starting to concentrate, because small and medium-sized bakeries are closing down because they cannot withstand the price pressure. They are facing several problems:

1. Companies cannot raise the price of their final products because the market does not accept it
2. Supplier prices are increasing – raw materials, energy, labor – somehow we should know how this cost increase affects operations and product pricing.
3. Grabbing every single EUR, RSD in production can mean survival.

X. What will happen?

Real-time costing is not a utopia! It is daily practice!

For example, the following questions may arise, the answers to which should be found very quickly:

1. We should know in real time how cost increases affect the entire production and the pricing model. How can we make a profit or simply survive under such circumstances?
2. We should be able to model how if diesel and gas prices go up, how will that affect overall production?
3. What if labor costs increase?
4. What if a raw material supplier comes and says that the price of the product needs to be increased because everything is going up, inflation, energy prices, etc.?

I could list more, but I won't.

If we see the production cost in real time, then these questions - and even harder ones - can be answered. Finding the right answers can ensure further profit generation, or simply survival.

We, food engineers, can help you see your situation and make good decisions!

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If your organization needs this in-depth pricing expertise, contact us with confidence!

You can entrust us with this task, and we are ready to contribute our knowledge to the success of your company! --- > Write to us!

lecsomernok@gmail.com

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As independent food engineers, it is in our interest that you, a Serbian baker or bakery entrepreneur, prosper. Because then you can entrust us not only with real-time cost calculations, but also with something else.

After all, in the end, you will pay all the bills.

The next two years will be an important period, a lot will be decided during this period. Let us help!